Bitcoin (BTC) Price Points to Institutional Meddling

Price patterns on BTC markets point to a small but repeating effect on the days of settlement for CME futures.

Bitcoin (BTC) market prices show signs of manipulation, though relatively small in comparison to general volatility. But the downward price pressures were noted by analysts at Arcane Research, showing a connection between CME closing dates and the behavior of the BTC price.

The connection was revealed just days after the launch of the Bakkt futures exchange coincided with one of the biggest drops for BTC in 2019. With previous warnings that the futures market could affect the spot price, now further evidence has been found.

BTC market prices fall by around 2% on average, on most days that the CME futures are settled, shows research by Arcane.

The possible explanation is that institutional investors are already buying physical BTC, and also taking positions on the futures market. If the futures are short, those new “whales” can sell BTC, locking in profit, while depressing the price so that their short position is also profitable.

Until now, the price of BTC has seen evidence of being pushed deliberately upward. But the trend to depress prices is also worrying. Triggering volatility in the crypto market is shaking up a still fragile, but growing system. BTC is now involved in multiple altcoins, as well as inadvertently affecting decentralized finance schemes.

BTC volatility recently triggered record liquidations, wiping out $600 million from the BitMex exchange alone.

Researchers have also discovered that on good months for BTC, the price effect was more pronounced. This may serve as evidence that enough market forces push down BTC to create gains on the futures market.

The next few months will show if the Bakkt market would have significant effects on BTC prices. While Bakkt has only traded less than 100 BTC per day, there are indications that crypto-to-crypto exchanges may be manipulated. It is uncertain if all exchanges report their real volumes. Bot trading and other spoof orders are still a possibility, swaying the BTC price in an automated manner across markets.

BTC currently hovers around $8,090.19, recovering from lows in the $7,800 range.