As November looms, the certainty of a hard fork for Bitcoin dwindles. The support for SegWit2X, or the New York Agreement, looks shakier and is poised to fall through the cutoff line of 84%. According to CoinDance, right now support for SegWit2X is 86.6%, enough to create the hard fork.
The most serious drop in support happened when F2Pool stopped signaling for SegWit2X last week.
Once almost considered a guaranteed development, SegWit2X is getting shakier. In the world of cryptocurrencies, decisions are made on the go and even a few weeks may make a difference- so the fate of Bitcoin is still unknown.
Until now, SlushPool remains to oppose the hard fork, along with recently-converted companies Bitwala and Wayniloans, who gave up their NYA support.
Bruce Fenton, Bitcoin enthusiast and evangelist, things that larger blocks may not be a scaling solution- but he tweeted that the upcoming events are a true test for Bitcoin:
I don't see the benefit of NYA / 2x at this stage. What's the end goal? Switching dev teams alone? What makes it worth it? ROI? Explain.
The story of the hard fork is unfolding behind the scenes. And while SegWit2X was a widely publicized development, it turns out the hype was more than the real power and influence.
This BitcoinTalk thread mentions several more weaknesses to the SegWit2X bid, the first being a lack of developers. Also, most full nodes running at the moment still belong to Bitcoin Core:
The wars on the SegWit2X issue are an example of a decentralized system where some of the decisions are made by cliques and in closed-door meetings. According to BitcoinTalk posters, one of the biggest threats is that Bitmain stands behind the SegWit2X chain, if it splits, and companies like Coinbase and XAPO follow through with the promise of following the chain with more difficulty and hashing power.
" But my main concern there is that Bitmain alone might control a majority of the global hash rate. It's still seems like things could get very messy if companies like Coinbase, Blockchain, Bitpay and Xapo -- in addition to Bitmain -- follow through on the fork.," wrote long-term forum member extasie.
There are two opinions on the events in November: one, that no hard fork will happen, and Bitcoin will continue with one blockchain. And two, that a hard fork would happen, but would have problems with hashing power and fail.
Still, there are supporters of the larger block solution, and some of them are already dedicated to Bitcoin Cash, which split off to offer larger blocks back in August. But the Bitcoin Cash blockchain comes with its own issues, mostly related to mining and shedding the coins quickly, depressing the price toward $300.