Bitcoin Technical Analysis: (BTC/USD) 3rd Time’s A Charm. Will BTC Break $10K Off The Back Of This Recovery?

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BTC has just started to find support again after yesterday’s Upbit investigation sparked a sudden market downturn. As the panic begins to settle, the #1 cryptocurrency by market cap is taking back lost ground and already marching back up towards $9000.

Will this correction be the springboard BTC needs to break through the $10,000 mark? Or will we see a third unsuccessful test of this keystone price target as more FUD sprouts up?

Let’s have a look.

Over 4hr candles above we can see BTC enjoyed a strong opening bullish uptrend from $6,800 around April 12th to $9,700 in less than a fortnight, which carried the asset hair-raisingly close to the elusive price point.

After correcting back to the 0.5 fibonacci support, the price action began oscillating between this lower level and the upper 0.382 fib resistance before bullish support began to rally again for a second attempt.

This second run brought us right to the mark at $9,940 - just $60 shy of the $10K target!
At this stage, news coverage suddenly broke out that South Korean exchange, Upbit, was under local investigation for allegations of fraud; sending BTC’s price tumbling.

While news has yet to resurface on these developments, some Bitcoin purists on reddit and twitter are calling it a market manipulation stunt, designed to tank BTC so that whale investors can buy up cheap Bitcoin.

Anyway, *adjusts tin hat*, back to the analysis.

Since finding the bottom of this bearish decline at $8,200, BTC has already regained $300 (at the time of writing) in the last 5hrs of trading.

Buying sentiment appears to be holding out OK for Bitcoin despite the recent drama, with the 50 EMA (blue) still holding above the 500 EMA (yellow) as short-term buying momentum continues to swing in the asset’s favour. Once the 200 EMA (red) rises above the yellow line we will get a much stronger indication that bullish support is preparing to drive BTC back to long-awaited levels.

Looking at BTC’s current momentum and the ichimoku indicator below we can see a few positive signs of a retracement to $9,000 in the short-term.


 RSI has recovered from an oversold moment in the latest dip, with Bitcoin starting to climb back into the channel.

Selling candles are shrinking below the signal line on the MACD indicator, as the bulls start to reverse the recent damage.

Looking at the ichimoku indicator we can see the projected kumo cloud is expecting to resist the future price action around the 0.382 fib level where our first price target sits.

We would like to see the Tenkan-Sen (blue) line starting to curve back up towards the Kijun-Sen line (red) to give us additional confidence that the bulls were starting to break upward again.

Bitcoin (BTC) Price Targets

Our first price target will be a retracement to the 0.382 fib level at $9,460 as BTC picks up where it left off. This will give us an initial ROI of 15.37% from the $8,200 bottom.

From here we could expect anything to happen. It is Bitcoin after all.

We could see some further sideways activity inside the green channel as traders remain uncertain of BTC pumping and dumping again. We could see a confident spike drive BTC well over the $10,000 mark with a sudden rush of market FOMO. Or, we could see fresh FUD rear its ugly head in the media again and cripple Bitcoin’s progress towards the benchmark price point.

If support can continue as projected, without any interfering news or global regulations, we’d like to see a second price target reach just over the 0.236 fib level at $10,280, which would give us a promising ROI of 25.24% from the $8,200 area.