Bitcoin (BTC) in 2020: 3 Possible Scenarios
The BTC market is now a mix of self-fulfilling prophecies and bets on the futures price, with the potential for spot-price to affect positions as well.
Bitcoin (BTC) had a turbulent year, in which its trading continued the evolution to incorporate the futures market. Barring the extreme prediction of John McAfee that BTC would reach $1 million in 2020, predictions range from a flat year to a period of new highs. Here are the possible scenarios for BTC in 2020.
BTC Repeating Mixed Performance Year: The BTC price will move within a relatively closed range, revisiting prices seen in 2019. The trend may start off with another dip in early 2020.
This prediction hinges on BTC revisiting $7,200 by the end of 2019, as currently the coin is just below that price range.
BTC Achieving Previous All-Time High: BTC at $20,000 is the prediction of Blockchain Capital, one of the leading crypto investing companies.
But there is no knowing how long BTC would spend at that level, and what factors could lead to the appreciation. BTC trends have a counterweight in the futures market, and out of control rallies are a thing of the past.
Sliding to Lows Since Before Peak: BTC also saw extremely bearish predictions, mostly based on a mood of capitulation. Peter Schiff stands by his long-term view that BTC is set to slide to $2,000 and $1,000 back again. This scenario is the least likely one, as BTC now has a new price discovery mechanism. Additionally, the mining economy works with prices above $3,500 at the least, with estimates also ranging from $4,500 for Chinese miners, to $7,000 and above for other farms with more expensive electricity.
BTC is impossible to track, but the futures markets now give a glimpse on the possibility to keep BTC bets in any direction. Fundamental factors and spot manipulation are still important, but BTC may follow an entirely different trajectory.
With the US economy evading a recession, BTC enters 2020 with cautious optimism. The crypto space has shed low-quality projects, and also poses some optimism for altcoin performance and project development in general.