Bitcoin (BTC) Fall Season Analysis: What Happened to BTC Prices Since September

In the past three months, BTC prices faltered, pushed by dramatic news, with unnerving plunges and sell-offs.

The past three months saw Bitcoin (BTC exchange rate USD) go through a bull-and-bear fight, with some dramatic intraday price swings. At the end of the period, BTC had not yet established a bull or bear market, remaining at a crossroads.

BTC had just spent weeks with relative stability around $10,000, when the launch of Bakkt futures on September 23 led to the first price crash deep under that price range. BTC would spend the next month hovering between $8,000 and $8,500, once again entering a period of relative stability.

The expected Halloween rally to $16,000 did not materialize, despite the vague predictions. Across all of October, BTC prices consolidated and stagnated, with not enough optimism to push to a higher price range.

Then, at the end of the month, a sudden late Friday rally saw the price peak again, adding 42% in a single trading day. BTC jumped again to just above $10,000, though dropping soon after that to the $9,300-9,500 range. The rally was sparked by a statement from the Chinese president Xi Jinping, which was accepted as a sign of easier crypto adoption in China.

BTC then entered another downward spiral, gradually declining to lower tiers. A brief stop was made at around $8,500, then the coin plunged under the $8,000 mark. Despite the positive promises, the Chinese government actually cracked down on small local exchanges.

Toward the end of November, BTC was ready to dip as low as $6,500. Still, shorting BTC carried extreme risk, as prices also recovered fast to the $7,300-7,500 range. The latest shakedown was exacerbated by the Upbit hack.

BTC also saw anomalously high volumes near $50 billion toward the end of November, as futures markets took over spot activity. The Bakkt physical delivery futures product became livelier, setting new records on BTC traded as well as open interest.

The past three months showed that BTC is still unpredictable, and may not behave according to preliminary expectations and narratives. The expectations of a bigger rally are so far delayed for March-May 2020, as the halving of the block reward is closing in.

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