Over the past two weeks, we’ve seen Bitcoin and other cryptos experience some of the most volatile price moves of the year.
Bullish players remain optimistic that the price will head higher. This includes two of the most prominent players in the space – the Winklevoss twins. In fact, they are so confident that they predicted one of the most ambitious price moves for Bitcoin, although they were dubious in the timing.
On another note, Goldman Sachs released a note about the overall space, and it was not flattering to cryptos at all.
Here, we’ll go over both developments.
During an appearance at a conference Wednesday, the twins discussed why they remain bullish. They are Cameron Winklevoss and Tyler Winklevoss.
Cameron said that he saw Bitcoin being worth 40 times its current value “one day.”
It’s that “one day,” that left many scratching their heads. Cameron didn’t expound on that prediction, but that likely didn’t faze many. That’s because the Winklevoss twins have been in the space since nearly its inception, and their thoughts are widely respected by the crypto community.
As of Thursday’s time of writing, Bitcoin’s market cap was nearing $150 billion based on its price of around $8,500. That means the “40 times” prediction could mean Bitcoin’s value could grow to as much as $340,000, which would give it a $6 trillion market cap.
"So if you look at a $100 billion market cap today, now last week it might have been more like 200, so it's actually a buying opportunity, we think that there's a potential appreciation of 30 to 40 times because you look at the gold market today, it's a $7 trillion market. And so a lot of people are starting to see that, they recognize the store of value properties. So we think regardless of the price moves in the last few weeks, it's still a very underappreciated asset."
As shiny as gold
Aside from that prediction, the twins also spoke about how Bitcoin will disrupt gold because of its finite supply. The person, or people behind Bitcoin’s creation, Satoshi Nakamoto, provided that only 21 million bitcoins could be mined. Of that amount, roughly 17 million tokens have already been mined. Still, the final coin is not expected to be produced until sometime around 2140.
“We think [Bitcoin’s] better than gold if you look at the properties of money. And what makes gold gold? Scarcity. Bitcoin is actually fixed in supply so it's better than scarce.”
From crypto bulls to bears
While there have been several moves to make it easy for people to use cryptos to buy things, most observers don’t believe such use is logical right now. The twins agree, and Tyler spoke specifically about it.
"Cryptocurrencies aren't really important for human-to-human transactions, but when machines-to-machines trade economic value, they are going to plug into protocols like bitcoin and Ethereum. They are not going to open bank accounts at J.P. Morgan; those were invented by bankers before the internet existed. Trying to use them as payments or money on the internet is a square peg in a round hole at best."
In addition, the coins are difficult to use in making purchases because of slow transaction times, security challenges and high maintenance costs, which is highlighted by Goldman Sachs this week.
Goldman’s head of global investment research Steve Strongin, released a note about the space in which he said most cryptos would crash to zero. He didn’t rule out this happening to crypto favorites Bitcoin, Ethereum and Ripple. He takes issue with cryptos lacking intrinsic value, which is the actual value of an asset based on the underlying perception of its true value.
"People seem to be trading cryptocurrencies as though they're all going to survive, or at least maintain their value. The high correlation between the different cryptocurrencies worries me. Contrary to what one would expect in a rational market, new currencies don't seem to reduce the value of old currencies; they all seem to move as a single asset class."
Strongin didn’t stop there, saying most cryptos had seen their peaks, and would never see such highs again.
“Are any of today’s cryptocurrencies going to be an Amazon or a Google, or will they end up like many of the now-defunct search engines? Just because we are in a speculative bubble does not mean current prices can’t increase for a handful of survivors.”